Labour market: resilience in the first quarter, but the real signal comes in the second
Against a slowing economy, a more cautious industrial sector and a persistent skills mismatch, the Italian labour market continues to show strong demand. But it is no longer simple demand: companies are looking for technical skills, experience and adaptability.
Q1 2026 closes with a resilient labour market – but the pace is changing
Volumes remain high – with over 1.4 million expected hires between January and March – confirming that labour demand has not stopped. However, this demand is growing within a slower economy, with industry under pressure and tighter margins.
Business associations openly speak of a slowdown: weak exports and consumption are weighing on the start of the year and, in March, most large companies expected production to remain broadly stable.
This is where labour becomes a leading indicator. Companies are still hiring, but they are concentrating on essential functions: production, operations and process management. And above all, they are paying far closer attention to profile quality.
The clearest signal remains hiring difficulty
It is steadily around 45%.
This is not just about a shortage of candidates: it reflects the difficulty of finding people who can be fully operational from day one, in a context where the margin for error is shrinking. Tensions are highest in technical and operational areas, where a growing share of demand is concentrated.
If we look at forecasts for the April–June quarter, an even more interesting pattern emerges. Companies are planning around 1.66 million hires, with 500,000 in April alone. The market is therefore not retreating quarter on quarter. Rather, it is stabilising at high levels.
Here again, however, the composition of demand is changing. Half of April’s expected hires are concentrated in production and service delivery roles (around 248,000), followed by sales and commercial functions (around 97,000). This is very concrete demand, driven more by operational needs than by expansion.
Hiring difficulty also remains high (44.6% in April), with peaks in technical activities: installation and maintenance roles exceed 66%. It is the same pattern seen at the start of the year: the issue is not how many people are needed, but finding the right ones.
National trends are not uniform
The picture changes across regions, follows supply chains and adapts to local production models.
In the North‑West, labour demand is more closely linked to industrial continuity; in the North‑East, to the speed and turnover of logistics; in Central Italy, to the flexibility of services; in the South and Islands, to the stability of processes and care‑related activities.
This is the real geography of today’s labour market. It is measured less in the total number of vacancies and more in the ability to detect them, interpret them and turn them into actual placements.
AxL – Agenzia per il Lavoro data
This is exactly where AxL – Agenzia per il Lavoro, positions its role: not to fill a generic gap, but to turn business needs into concrete solutions.
In the first quarter alone, according to data from the “Cruscotto Lavoro”, 4,405 people were placed through 32 branches across the country.
More interesting than the absolute number, however, is where and how these placements are concentrated.
In the North‑West, where continuity of production is crucial, placements mainly involve skilled workers and production profiles. In the North‑East, where pressure is on logistics and flow speed, demand is growing for warehouse workers and forklift operators. In Central Italy, demand is spread across services, facility management and hospitality, while in the South and Islands it focuses on care, operational processes and support roles.
These are exactly the areas where the market reports the greatest hiring difficulties. And this is where intermediation work becomes most concrete: not just recruitment and selection, but the ability to read the context and adapt solutions to companies’ real needs.